Rebounded very nicely last week, going 4-1. Hopefully more of the same today.
Home team in caps.
Hawaii -9 TULSA 62
Last week I had Kansas in their straight up win over Missouri as 10 point underdogs. The Tulsa game this week sets up in the same manner as last week's game. We have a home underdog who has played a tougher schedule and has some similar numbers. Last week, the weakness of the Kansas team was their defense and the same is true for Tulsa, but their offense should do enough to negate any weakness on defense. Tulsa should be able to move the ball in this game. Their running game is averaging 4.5 yards per rush against teams who are allowing 3.9 yards per rush. And they didn't just gain all of that in their last game against Arkansas State. Tulsa rushed for over 200 yards and over 5.0 ypr against Arkansas as well. While my numbers only count for Division 1A lined games, they have rushed for over 200 yards in three straight games (one against a Non-Division 1A team). They should be able to move the ball on the ground against a Hawaii defense that has been good against the run but not great, allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr. The weakness of the Hawaii defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yards per pass against teams averaging only 6.4 yards per pass. Last week Rice averaged over 12 yards per pass and this week, an average Tulsa pass offense (5.6 yps against teams allowing 5.6 yps) should be able to gain some big yards through the air, especially after they get their running game going. Tulsa has defended the pass pretty well this year, although they haven't really faced a Division 1A true passing team yet. They are allowing 7.3 yards per pass against teams averaging 7.4 yards per pass. The big disappointment for Hawaii this year is their passing game, which is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass against teams allowing 6.8 yards per pass. Hawaii only averaged 6.0 yps against USC, who allows 6.6 yps, they only averaged 6.0 yps against UNLV, who allows 6.5 yps and only averaged 5.7 yps against Rice, who allows 7.4 yps. Their passing game just isn't jelling and now facing a Tulsa pass defense, which is average, probably won't allow it to get any better. Tulsa qualifies in some terrific situations this week. They qualify in a 61-27-0 momentum situation based on their dominating win two weeks ago (had a bye last week) and another momentum situation, which is 21-3-1. Also conference rested home teams off a win, with revenge and favored by three or less or a dog versus a less than or equal to .750 opponent are now 31-8-0. The final kicker in this is my final predicted score predicts Tulsa to win this game straight up, just like the Kansas game last week. An inform offense, playing with momentum, solid situations behind them against an over rated team and tons of line value make this a clear play. I also like the over in this game. TULSA 39 HAWAII 29
Boise State -8 LOUISIANA TECH 53.5
This one is easy. Before I begin to read the numbers to you, understand L. Tech has played a much tougher schedule to date. Knowing this, we also know L. Tech has the better offense, gaining 5.8 yards per play against teams allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Boise State offense is only gaining 5.5 yards per play against teams allowing 5.7 yards per play. On defense, Boise does have the better of it, allowing just 5.2 yards per play against 5.3 yards per play, while L. Tech is allowing 5.3 yards per play against 4.8 yards per play. But, again, some of that is because of the tougher schedule that L. Tech has played. And when you break their offense and defense into groups, L. Tech has the better offense, the defenses are close to even and the teams overall are basically even. This is not the same Boise State team we have seen the last couple of years. L. Tech is coming home after playing their last three on the road and they qualify in a 58-21-1 situation based on that. My numbers also predict a tie in this game so eight points of value is just fine with me. Situations, value and a senior led quarterback who can get us the back door cover if we absolutely need it make this a winning play. LOUISIANA TECH 21 BOISE STATE 17
COLORADO ST -5.5 Fresno State 51.5
Colorado State comes in needing a win very badly having lost their last two, at home, to Miami-Oh. and Utah. They also seek triple revenge against Fresno this week. But seeking revenge won't help when your defense can't stop anybody. Once again, Fresno has played the tougher schedule so knowing that these two teams are about even, with Fresno having the better defense, and getting points is a must play. Fresno hasn't stopped the run very well this year but CSU isn't running the ball very well. FSU is allowing 4.6 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr but CSU is only gaining 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr. The strength of the CSU offense has been their passing offense, which is gaining 10.3 yps against 7.9 yps but the strength of the Fresno defense is their pass defense, allowing just 6.5 yps against 7.6 yps. The Fresno offense, as a whole is about average to slightly below average but against a below par CSU defense, they should find some holes. And while the CSU offense is above average, the Fresno defense is slightly above average as well and when you consider Fresno has played the tougher schedule, it makes those numbers even better in favor of Fresno. CSU lost at home last week and teams in their situation don't bounce back too easily. Matter of fact, CSU qualified in the same negative situation last week that they do this week. That situation is a 33-86-2 play against them. My numbers favor Fresno to win this game by about 4-7 points. Plenty of value, the better defense and the situation in their favor make Fresno a winner on Saturday. FRESNO STATE 27 COLORADO STATE 21
TEXAS -6.5 Kansas State 54
I might be reaching on this game because my numbers don't support the play but the fundamentals, logic and the situations all do favor my play. The offenses in this game are about equal with Kansas State averaging 6.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.8 yppl, while Texas is averaging 6.7 yppl against 5.6 yppl. On defense, Texas has the slight advantage, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while Kansas State is allowing 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Kansas State has also played the tougher schedule, which makes these numbers even closer. On top of that, Kansas State has also played about half of their season without their two best players, qb El Roberson and their rb Daren Sproles. Put those two back in the lineup for all of their games and the numbers might be even better. Also, Texas has played one tough game this year, against Arkansas at home, and they were beaten badly. Kansas State is coming off a loss, as a heavy favorite in their last game, and that should have them focused here as they qualify in a 60-21-0 situation based on that. My numbers do favor Texas by about 11 to 17 points in this game but I'll ride with the situation and what I consider to be two even teams, by grabbing the dog in this game. TEXAS 31 KANSAS STATE 30
MIAMI-OH -16.5 Akron 64.5
Very simple here. Two offenses playing above average with Akron averaging 6.2 yppl against 5.8 yppl and Miami averaging 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. We also have two defenses playing below average, with Akron allowing 5.63 yppl against 4.6 yppl and Miami allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.4 yppl. Put that together with a projected score and there is value in the over in this game. My final numbers suggest anywhere from 67 to 82 points being scored. With both teams being able to move the ball against the other teams weaknesses, the over is the play here. Last year they combined for 79 points and they should do it again this year. MIAMI 51 ARKON 21
PURDUE -14 Illinois 45
Once again, very simple. Two offenses playing below average against two defenses playing above average. Illinois is averaging 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Purdue is averaging just 5.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl. On defense Illinois allows just 4.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl and Purdue only 4.0 yppl against 4.4 yppl. Combine that with a predicted score of only about 35 points and we have solid value to the under. PURDUE 24 ILLINOIS 13
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -3 TEMPLE 48
Once again two above average offenses against two below average defenses. Also, both teams are throwing the ball well (Temple 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps and MTState 7.6 yps against 6.5 yps) and neither team is defending the pass well (Temple allowing 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps and MTState allowing 8.5 yps against 6.9 yps). Combine that with a predicted score of about 57 points and there is solid value to the over and fundamental to support it. TEMPLE 31 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 28
SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 BYU 40
This total keeps going up and I love it. Hopefully there are some more people who wish to keep betting the over. We have two offenses that have been below average this year (BYU averaging 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl and SD State averaging 3.9 yppl against 4.4 yppl) versus two defense well above average (BYU allowing 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl and SD State allowing 3.7 yppl against 4.1 yppl). Combine that with a final predicted score of only about 29 points and we have solid value to the under. SAN DIEGO STATE 17 BYU 14
For Saturday:
YTD 8-12-1 -14.50%
2% TULSA +10 (Played on Tuesday)
2% LOUISIANA TECH +8
2% FRESNO ST +5.5
2% KANSAS STATE +6.5 (Line might keep going up)
1% AKRON/MIAMI OVER 64.5 (No higher than 67)
1% ILLINOIS/PURDUE UNDER 45
1% HAWAII/TULSA OVER 62 (No higher than 64)
1% BYU/SD STATE UNDER 40
1% TEMPLE/MIDDTENNST OVER 48
Home team in caps.
Hawaii -9 TULSA 62
Last week I had Kansas in their straight up win over Missouri as 10 point underdogs. The Tulsa game this week sets up in the same manner as last week's game. We have a home underdog who has played a tougher schedule and has some similar numbers. Last week, the weakness of the Kansas team was their defense and the same is true for Tulsa, but their offense should do enough to negate any weakness on defense. Tulsa should be able to move the ball in this game. Their running game is averaging 4.5 yards per rush against teams who are allowing 3.9 yards per rush. And they didn't just gain all of that in their last game against Arkansas State. Tulsa rushed for over 200 yards and over 5.0 ypr against Arkansas as well. While my numbers only count for Division 1A lined games, they have rushed for over 200 yards in three straight games (one against a Non-Division 1A team). They should be able to move the ball on the ground against a Hawaii defense that has been good against the run but not great, allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr. The weakness of the Hawaii defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 8.0 yards per pass against teams averaging only 6.4 yards per pass. Last week Rice averaged over 12 yards per pass and this week, an average Tulsa pass offense (5.6 yps against teams allowing 5.6 yps) should be able to gain some big yards through the air, especially after they get their running game going. Tulsa has defended the pass pretty well this year, although they haven't really faced a Division 1A true passing team yet. They are allowing 7.3 yards per pass against teams averaging 7.4 yards per pass. The big disappointment for Hawaii this year is their passing game, which is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass against teams allowing 6.8 yards per pass. Hawaii only averaged 6.0 yps against USC, who allows 6.6 yps, they only averaged 6.0 yps against UNLV, who allows 6.5 yps and only averaged 5.7 yps against Rice, who allows 7.4 yps. Their passing game just isn't jelling and now facing a Tulsa pass defense, which is average, probably won't allow it to get any better. Tulsa qualifies in some terrific situations this week. They qualify in a 61-27-0 momentum situation based on their dominating win two weeks ago (had a bye last week) and another momentum situation, which is 21-3-1. Also conference rested home teams off a win, with revenge and favored by three or less or a dog versus a less than or equal to .750 opponent are now 31-8-0. The final kicker in this is my final predicted score predicts Tulsa to win this game straight up, just like the Kansas game last week. An inform offense, playing with momentum, solid situations behind them against an over rated team and tons of line value make this a clear play. I also like the over in this game. TULSA 39 HAWAII 29
Boise State -8 LOUISIANA TECH 53.5
This one is easy. Before I begin to read the numbers to you, understand L. Tech has played a much tougher schedule to date. Knowing this, we also know L. Tech has the better offense, gaining 5.8 yards per play against teams allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Boise State offense is only gaining 5.5 yards per play against teams allowing 5.7 yards per play. On defense, Boise does have the better of it, allowing just 5.2 yards per play against 5.3 yards per play, while L. Tech is allowing 5.3 yards per play against 4.8 yards per play. But, again, some of that is because of the tougher schedule that L. Tech has played. And when you break their offense and defense into groups, L. Tech has the better offense, the defenses are close to even and the teams overall are basically even. This is not the same Boise State team we have seen the last couple of years. L. Tech is coming home after playing their last three on the road and they qualify in a 58-21-1 situation based on that. My numbers also predict a tie in this game so eight points of value is just fine with me. Situations, value and a senior led quarterback who can get us the back door cover if we absolutely need it make this a winning play. LOUISIANA TECH 21 BOISE STATE 17
COLORADO ST -5.5 Fresno State 51.5
Colorado State comes in needing a win very badly having lost their last two, at home, to Miami-Oh. and Utah. They also seek triple revenge against Fresno this week. But seeking revenge won't help when your defense can't stop anybody. Once again, Fresno has played the tougher schedule so knowing that these two teams are about even, with Fresno having the better defense, and getting points is a must play. Fresno hasn't stopped the run very well this year but CSU isn't running the ball very well. FSU is allowing 4.6 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr but CSU is only gaining 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr. The strength of the CSU offense has been their passing offense, which is gaining 10.3 yps against 7.9 yps but the strength of the Fresno defense is their pass defense, allowing just 6.5 yps against 7.6 yps. The Fresno offense, as a whole is about average to slightly below average but against a below par CSU defense, they should find some holes. And while the CSU offense is above average, the Fresno defense is slightly above average as well and when you consider Fresno has played the tougher schedule, it makes those numbers even better in favor of Fresno. CSU lost at home last week and teams in their situation don't bounce back too easily. Matter of fact, CSU qualified in the same negative situation last week that they do this week. That situation is a 33-86-2 play against them. My numbers favor Fresno to win this game by about 4-7 points. Plenty of value, the better defense and the situation in their favor make Fresno a winner on Saturday. FRESNO STATE 27 COLORADO STATE 21
TEXAS -6.5 Kansas State 54
I might be reaching on this game because my numbers don't support the play but the fundamentals, logic and the situations all do favor my play. The offenses in this game are about equal with Kansas State averaging 6.7 yppl against teams allowing 5.8 yppl, while Texas is averaging 6.7 yppl against 5.6 yppl. On defense, Texas has the slight advantage, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 5.3 yppl, while Kansas State is allowing 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Kansas State has also played the tougher schedule, which makes these numbers even closer. On top of that, Kansas State has also played about half of their season without their two best players, qb El Roberson and their rb Daren Sproles. Put those two back in the lineup for all of their games and the numbers might be even better. Also, Texas has played one tough game this year, against Arkansas at home, and they were beaten badly. Kansas State is coming off a loss, as a heavy favorite in their last game, and that should have them focused here as they qualify in a 60-21-0 situation based on that. My numbers do favor Texas by about 11 to 17 points in this game but I'll ride with the situation and what I consider to be two even teams, by grabbing the dog in this game. TEXAS 31 KANSAS STATE 30
MIAMI-OH -16.5 Akron 64.5
Very simple here. Two offenses playing above average with Akron averaging 6.2 yppl against 5.8 yppl and Miami averaging 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. We also have two defenses playing below average, with Akron allowing 5.63 yppl against 4.6 yppl and Miami allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.4 yppl. Put that together with a projected score and there is value in the over in this game. My final numbers suggest anywhere from 67 to 82 points being scored. With both teams being able to move the ball against the other teams weaknesses, the over is the play here. Last year they combined for 79 points and they should do it again this year. MIAMI 51 ARKON 21
PURDUE -14 Illinois 45
Once again, very simple. Two offenses playing below average against two defenses playing above average. Illinois is averaging 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Purdue is averaging just 5.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl. On defense Illinois allows just 4.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl and Purdue only 4.0 yppl against 4.4 yppl. Combine that with a predicted score of only about 35 points and we have solid value to the under. PURDUE 24 ILLINOIS 13
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -3 TEMPLE 48
Once again two above average offenses against two below average defenses. Also, both teams are throwing the ball well (Temple 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps and MTState 7.6 yps against 6.5 yps) and neither team is defending the pass well (Temple allowing 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps and MTState allowing 8.5 yps against 6.9 yps). Combine that with a predicted score of about 57 points and there is solid value to the over and fundamental to support it. TEMPLE 31 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 28
SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 BYU 40
This total keeps going up and I love it. Hopefully there are some more people who wish to keep betting the over. We have two offenses that have been below average this year (BYU averaging 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl and SD State averaging 3.9 yppl against 4.4 yppl) versus two defense well above average (BYU allowing 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl and SD State allowing 3.7 yppl against 4.1 yppl). Combine that with a final predicted score of only about 29 points and we have solid value to the under. SAN DIEGO STATE 17 BYU 14
For Saturday:
YTD 8-12-1 -14.50%
2% TULSA +10 (Played on Tuesday)
2% LOUISIANA TECH +8
2% FRESNO ST +5.5
2% KANSAS STATE +6.5 (Line might keep going up)
1% AKRON/MIAMI OVER 64.5 (No higher than 67)
1% ILLINOIS/PURDUE UNDER 45
1% HAWAII/TULSA OVER 62 (No higher than 64)
1% BYU/SD STATE UNDER 40
1% TEMPLE/MIDDTENNST OVER 48
